Man, I thought after the JJ/Dinara at #1 debacles of 2009 everyone would understand how tennis rankings work. But I guess with the Slam season over and ensuing tennis lull beginning, it's that time of the year for beating up on easy targets in order to bolster your big name favorites.
My Google Reader is inundated with stories with headlines that can only be summarized as follows:
"ZOMG, YOU GUYYYYYZZZ! KIM WON AND DROPPED IN THE RANKINGS BUT TEARSY CRYERSOVA JUMPED UP AND IS NOW RANKED HIGHER?!?!?! WTF!!!!!!"
Even Tennis Channel's Court Report, which could have reported on anything in its 30 second spot, decided to ZOMG Vera's ranking.
I can sit silent on the couch in my pajamas eating cold dim sum delivery watching Bones reruns no longer.
365 days. That's what the rankings measure. Your performance over the past 365 days. Not your 2010, not your last 10 years, and certainly not the public's perception of your tennis prowess. Now I'm sure that last point is really what gets into people's pants. "BUT THE RANKINGS DON'T REFLECT HOW I RANK THESE PLAYERS IN MY HEAD!!!" Well, I don't know what to tell you there, fair-weather fan. But if you actually paid attention to these players and to this sport on a weekly or daily basis, you'd see that the rankings are precisely right.
Has Kim had a better 2010 than Vera? Yes. How do we know that? Because the Race points say so. The Race points, which measure performance FOR THE SEASON, put Kim one spot ahead of Vera.
Has Kim had a better last 365 days than Vera? Not based on points. Kim won the 2009 USO and didn't play again. Vera kept playing through the fall season and picked up some points. Not a whole lot of points, but enough to put her ahead of Kim.
How does this confuse people? How does it cause hand wringing and hair pulling? I seriously don't get it. If Kim takes the rest of the year off and Vera fails to defend her points and falls behind Kim, are we going to see a bevy of "KIM IS SITTING ON THE COUCH EATING BON BONS YET SOMEHOW JUMPED A SPOT IN THE RANKINGS!!!!" articles? Doubtful.
If anything, given Kim's year, it's impressive she's as high as she is. She won Brisbane, Miami, Cincy, and the USO, sure, all fantastic and amazing performances in big tourneys. But she also got dumped from AO, IW, and Wimby, and she completely skipped the clay season, including RG. She's quickly falling into that Serena category: A player who can dominate any time she shows up, but you don't know (1) if she'll show up and (2) whether she'll bring her A game or F game.
So here's my question for everyone: Everyone likes to take a piss at the rankings system. But it's way easier to tear something down rather than offer solutions. So what's the alternative? Give more point weight to the Slams? Stop rewarding the tour stalwarts who clock in and out each and every week so that a tour even exists? Force the Serena and Kims to play more so that their rankings are more "true"? Add a qualitative element like the college football polling system? Or will the rankings system, no matter what, always be the source of easy jokes?
Weigh in in the comments. I'm genuinely curious to hear some proposals. And if you can't think of a viable proposal, maybe it's time to put down the haterade.
But What Does It Meeeeeeaaaaannnnn????
"The Economist, once a year, heads out on this mission to see the
future. They try to predict the coming year... I am a fan of The
Economist-- that said, I think this project where they try to predict
the coming year is totally ridiculous. You have these great reporters
who have to write about, for instance, what's going to happen in
China in the year 2010 and they bring so much knowledge to this
question, but in the end, because no one can know the future, they
end up making these kind of equivocal 'on the one hand, on the other
hand' kinds of predictions... who cares?? ... 'Here's a bunch of random
things that may or may not happen, believe whatever you want.'"
-- Ira Glass, This American Life ("2010")
That right there is pretty much my personal opinion of predictions in sports like tennis. Who cares? Mostly, nothing means anything. The business of predictions, proclamations, assertions made on the basis of a single match (or one good week) is misleading and serves no purpose in an objective sport like tennis. This year especially, when there are so many comebacks (from both retirement and injury) and a string of Very Good Players who had Very Bad Years last year, proclaiming the future seems particularly futile. Trust me, I've been in sports where predictions and what certain people say and who won which events actually matters. You don't want any part of it.
I don't even get why people like to do it (is it so you can say later that you were right? Usually I could get into that). All you can do in tennis is watch and see what happens. To me, that's part of the beauty of it. I hate trying to guess what's going to happen. I'd much rather take stock as I go along.
So.
Things That--Really Guys-- Seem Completely Meaningless Right Now
Sorana Cirstea d Sam Stosur (Hopman Cup)
Melanie Oudin's "Sub-Par" Performance at Hopman Cup
Melanie's always down in small events and then up in Slams and Fed Cup (or, at least, that's the pattern she established last year). Her performances at Hopman Cup indicate nothing other than that-- so far-- that trend looks to continue.
"Comeback" Wins By Daniela Hantuchova, Alize Cornet, and Dominika Cibulkova
All of these women are former top-20 (or even top-5) players with immense amounts of talent, loads of past results, and a not-so-hot 2009. All of them had pretty stellar early matches this week that looked like their peak selves, prompting some to call them contenders for the second week of the Australian Open. All of them immediately had their asses handed to them by higher-ranked, more consistent players. Ahem. (Not that they couldn't be, mind you, it's just silly to declare that based on two good matches that follow 6 months--or more-- of nothing.)
Laura's new on the pro scene and has her youth and lack of record working against her in the "where might this be going" game. She also, should her mind turn out to tend towards these kinds of things, has a huge disadvantage in all the pressure that is being, and will continue to be piled on her by the British media. But it's been a lot of fun to watch her grow in confidence at Hopman Cup this week. In her first match, she looked terrified, but through playing mixed doubles with Andy Murray, she seems to be growing in her belief that she can keep up with the big kids. She played Sabine Lisicki very well, looking at all times like she belonged on the same court. It'll be interesting to see if that continues to develop for her.
On paper, Sam should have won all her matches at Hopman Cup. In the real world, she lost two out of three. Her ability is undeniable, but she isn't exactly projecting the kind of mental strength that's going to sustain her at the top of the game. Is this particularly dismal performance just a sign that, like Amelie Mauresmo in France, she doesn't cope well with the hometown pressure? Is it something bigger than that? Or did she just have a really bad week?
Ana Ivanovic (Brisbane)
Justine Henin (Brisbane)
She's back, and she's winning, but winning how? Her matches have all been close, and with the exception of Nadia Petrova, they've not been against people ranked anywhere near what is popularly thought of as Justine's caliber. We all know what Justine's capable of, her record is clear evidence of that. But it shouldn't be forgotten, either, how dismal the last few months of her "first" career were, or that she has yet to play-- let alone beat-- a top 10 player on her comeback.
Flavia Pennetta (Auckland)
Flavia's usual modus operandi is to have a pretty dismal winter, pick up at Acapulco, have a couple of good clay events, and then really come alive on the US Open Series in the summer. But this year in Auckland she's come roaring out of the gates, kicking ass and taking names. Hmmm.
Caroline Wozniacki, Victoria Azarenka (Twitter)
Whaddya know. Some shit is completely predictable after all.
Posted by Carrie on January 07, 2010 in Alize Cornet, Ana Ivanovic, Caroline Wozniacki, Commentary, Daniela Hantuchova, Dominika Cibulkova, Elena Dementieva, Flavia Pennetta, Guest Blogger, Justine Henin, Nadia Petrova, Sabine Lisicki, Sam Stosur, Sorana Cirstea, Vera Zvonereva, Victoria Azarenka, WTA | Permalink | Comments (19) | TrackBack (0)
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