The ATP provides a rundown of the race for #2.
With the 2008 Monte-Carlo points dropping off Monday, 27 April, Federer will lose 700 points, Djokovic 450 points and Murray 150 points. Murray will narrow the gap to 110 points going into the fourth ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament in Rome.
Here is what the trio's point totals will look like in the South African Airways 2009 ATP Rankings on Monday, 27 April:
|2) Roger Federer||10,060|
|3) Novak Djokovic||9,160|
|4) Andy Murray||9,050|
Rome was held one week later last year and the 2008 points will drop on 11 May with Djokovic losing 1,000 points for his title, Federer 250 and Murray 70. Here are the minimum point totals (without the '09 Rome points added on 4 May and Belgrade points on 11 May):
|2) Roger Federer||9,810|
|3) Andy Murray||8,980|
|4) Novak Djokovic||8,160|
So it looks like Muzz has a fantastic shot of coming out of Rome at #3 (he's only 110 points behind Nole), and an almost guaranteed rise to #3 in May. Nole's going to have to defend his Rome title, win Belgrade, and make a huge run in Madrid to keep distance over Muzz.
The more fun question is whether Muzz can catch Roger before RG. Probably not. But it'll be fun watching him try.